La Niña Poised To Do Some Damage

2011 Horn of Africa Drought. Image Public Domain.

Understanding the human impacts behind global weather patterns is usually hard for most people. The end of 2017 comes with La Niña Warnings and La Niña Early Flags. Initially predicted to be a weak La Niña some say it can liveout two years.

Those who are familiar with the terms La Niña and El Niño now begin to shake and tremble...does the predictions of a weak La Niña pattern setting in set their mind at ease? Unlikely.

Radio New Zealand reported on December 11 that "La Nina weather pattern is forecasted for the Pacific". “The tropical Pacific is in a state of La Niña, with the conditions likely to persist for at least the next three months,”New Zealand's Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research communicated.

La Niña is mostly remebered for the 2011 impacts which led to famine, hunger and crisis in different areas -in Africa it killed 50 thousand to 100 thousand people as drought settled in.  

Last month from Rome the World Health Organization WHO warned that World Hunger is on the rise again, driven by conflict and climate change. The statement was based in a new United Nations report.

“815 Million people are now impacted by hunger -millions of children are at risk from malnutrition,” the new UN report assures.

Understanding the human impacts behind global weather patterns is usually tricky...or is it?

La Niña and El Niño are both global weather patterns unleashed by alterations in Ocean temperatures which set the rule for global weather. La Niña and El Niño both give way to droughts, strange weather patterns, floods, flash floods, extreme drought, poverty, crop losses by the billions, lack of water, conflicts, volatile global food markets, food security issues, natural disasters and historically have caused the direct loss of thousands lives and impacted the entire World over and over and over and over again.

"Here’s what can happen when the surface of the equatorial Pacific gets just a little warmer: Thousands of people die as the weather changes from India to Florida. Some economies lose billions of dollars; others enjoy respite from weather-related losses. Prices of commodities ranging from nickel to coffee jolt skyward. Then when the waters cool, patterns shift, with areas previously spared often experiencing calamitous hurricanes, floods or drought, and others getting a break from such buffeting forces. The whole cycle is known as El Nino-Southern Oscillation. It is made up of El Nino, the Pacific’s warm phase; La Nina, the cold side; and a neutral phase in between. The whole thing tends to play itself out every two to seven years." Bloomberg recently reported.

According to United Nations Global Hunger was dropping and contained for the past decade but now again on the rise it is affecting 11 % of the Global Population.

“At the same time, multiple forms of malnutrition are threatening the health of millions worldwide,” World Health Organizations spokesmen add.

“The increase -38 million more people than the previous year is largely due to the proliferation of violent conflicts and climate-related shocks,” the report “State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2017” of the UN says.

The report is the first UN global assessment on food security and nutrition to be released following the adoption of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, which aims to end hunger and all forms of malnutrition by 2030 as a top international policy priority. Ocean agenda and the announcement of 2021 as the start of the Ocean Decade of UN are all matters that are deeply connected to the issue. .

La Niña as well as El Niño are weather patterns which are extremely difficult to predict even for the most expert weather analisits and scientists.

Last November NOAA -the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration of the US funded two studies from Researchers of the University of Texas at Austin to predict the strength and duration of droughts caused by La Niña.

“Some La Niña events last two years, and predicting them is extremely challenging,” said Pedro DiNezio, a research associate at the University of Texas Institute for Geophysics -UTIG.

"We expected a weaker impact in the second year, but it turned out to be the opposite,” said Okumura. “Despite being weaker in the second year, La Niña appears to have a greater impact.”

“Predicting if La Niña will last multiple years is therefore essential to knowing how long the drought will last,” Okumura adds.

This year La Niña will impact regions from Australia, to Southeast Asia, to America and the US, Africa and other regions.

La Niña is not to be underestimated besides the 50 to 100 thousand deaths caused by La Niña in the Horn of Africa Drought in 2011 it has also affected several other regions widely cutting deep.

In Asia during La Niña years tropical cyclones form and shift increasing the landfall threat to China. Southeast Asia has been hard by La Niña. Heavy rains have cover Malaysia, the Philippines, and Indonesia in these seasons. This causes losses by the billions and affects millions of people directly.

When La Niña sets out to do some damage in South America it hits it with extreme drought and tragic rainfall. Regions of Peru and Chile are ruled by dry climate. Central Andes is flooded, Bolivia takes the waterfall hard.

La Niña will not only affect the rich agricultural and developing sectors of market but it will bring down to its knee the most vulnerable communities of Southeast Asia and South America. Vulnertable communities are the most affected by far.

On December 8 Press of Peru La Republica reported that if the ocean continues to cool down as it has been for the past month the first days of January will be shocked by La Niña.

Kobi Mosquera scientific researcher of the Geophysical Institute of Peru -IGP assures that La Niña is imminent. Three more months of ocean temperatures dropping have already been predicted. Rainfall warnings for the Andes and for the Amazonia have already been issued.

SENAMHI Peruvian Climate Expert Kris Correa added that it is not a matter of waiting for rain to fall hard...rainfall has already began in Cusco, Peru. The system moves into the direction of the Andes community -area which homes millions of people and which water system connects and entire producing region which literally feeds the World.

“The manifestation of these patterns shows that La Niña is already in configuration mode,” Correa kicked it.

In Argentina main Newspaper La Nacion reported on December 12 that experts are expecting impacts for the Soy and Corn Season.

Atmospheric Sciences Phd -José Luis Aiello told La Nacion that the “situation is complicated”. The 2017-2018 Corn and Soy Season will not see its usual rainfall. Production will drop below averages.

Reuters Reporters added that it is not only South American crops which will suffer. Australia agriculture and other sectors such as mining which depend on water supply will also be affected. US Authorities joined in and flagged La Niña as coming into North America all the way up to Alaska to stay.

OXFAM assures that La Niña is a preventable crisis.

“El Niño and La Niña events need earlier responses and a renewed focus on prevention,” OXFAM says.

“Recently leaders adopted an historic new goal of eradicating hunger by 2030, as part of the

new Sustainable Development Goals,” OXFAM reminds leaders.

“For public health, climate change is the defining issue for the 21st century. The impact of climate change is universal, unpredictable, sometimes contested, and most appealingly photogenic when a stranded polar bear is in the picture. WHO estimates that, each year, more than 7 million deaths worldwide can be attributed to air pollution. Climate change is also causing tens of thousands of yearly deaths from other causes,” Dr Margaret Chan -General Director of the World Health Organization WHO said in Geneva Switzerland on June 8 2017

“Droughts threaten already perilous food supplies, especially in poor countries where subsistence farming is rain-fed. The scale of this threat is immense. Agriculture, including smallholder farming, employs around 60% of the workforce in sub-Saharan Africa and accounts for a third of its gross domestic product. In some countries, more than 70% of the population depends on subsistence farming for a livelihood,” she adds.

Dr. Chan explained that cholera, Zika and Dengue are all climate influenced pandemics.

“Experts predict that, by 2050, climate change will be causing an additional 250,000 deaths each year just from malaria, diarrhoeal disease, heat stress, and undernutrition,” she adds.

“...more than half of the world’s population lives in an area where the Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, the principal vector for Zika, dengue, and chikungunya, are present…”

“A human rights approach provides an entry point for holding countries accountable for their international obligations on climate change. Without a strong agenda for action on climate change, most of the 17 goals will be utopian. The hard-won gains for health since the start of this century can easily be swept away by the tidal wave of health threats unleashed by climate change,” Dr Chan continues.

“A ruined planet cannot sustain human lives in good health,” WHO kicks it.